HURRICANE RIDGE WAS on prominent display while growing up in Port Townsend.
How’s that geographic impossibility possible, some may ask.
A framed photo of a snow-covered Hurricane Ridge and lodge was on display in my Dad’s home office, and I’d look at it often when stumped while typing essays or book reports in school.
So seeing Hurricane Ridge dressed in its winter finery via web cams available at hurricaneridge.com triggers a welcome memory.
And a snowy Hurricane Ridge is a welcome sight for skiers, snowboarders and tubers who were denied a ski season last winter.
With many news reports full of doom and gloom forecasting “a record El Niño piling up in advance of winter, two area meteorologists are taking a different tack.
Yes, this year’s weather patterns are trending toward the El Niño norm in the Pacific Northwest: warmer and drier than usual.
But conditions shouldn’t reach the dire level witnessed last winter, when snowpack reached just 3 percent of normal in the Olympics according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resource Conservation Service.
Port Angeles-raised meterologist Scott Sistek of KOMO in Seattle says not to panic in a post on his weather blog at tinyurl.com/PDN-Sistek.
“Yes, El Niño does typically mean a lower than average snowpack, but not 75 percent lower,” Sistek wrote.
He cited research conducted by Karter Riach of Summit at Snoqualmie that shows stronger El Niño’s like this coming winter’s have been less restrictive on snowfall than weak El Niño’s like last winter.
“So if this winter were to net a “normal” El Niño Riach snow pack, it’d be triple of last year’s snow and plenty of ski days, even though that would still be below normal,” Sistek wrote.
He’s referring to conditions last year at Snoqualmie Pass, but his conclusion has weight for Hurricane Ridge.
KPLU meteorologist Cliff Mass takes it a step further.
“But examining the climatology of snow during El Niño years and the latest model output, I have a much more optimistic take: I believe it is highly probable that some of the higher elevation Northwest ski areas will be open by Thanksgiving, as will several high level cross country ski areas,” Mass wrote on his blog at tinyurl.com/PDN-Mass.
Mass says he’s optimistic because “I start by nothing that strong El Nino years typically end off with about 80 percent of normal snowpack.”
And while not great news, that’s enough for me to be highly optimistic for snow sports enthusiasts’ prospects this winter.
Winterfest tickets
Tickets to Winterfest, the annual fundraiser to support winter sports at Hurricane Ridge, are now on sale.
The event will be held at the Vern Burton Community Center on Saturday, Nov. 21.
Doors open at 5 p.m., and the event runs from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m.
Attendees can enjoy a prime rib dinner prepared by Next Door Gastropub, live and silent auctions, live music by Bill and Rudy and a series of short films featuring area skiers and snowboarders shredding snow at Hurricane Ridge.
Proceeds go to snow school and ski team operations, as well as scholarships to underprivileged area children who would like to learn how to ski, snowboard or participate on a ski team.
Tickets are $45 in advance and $50 at the door. Children 12 and younger are $25.
Individual tickets can be purchased at Swain’s General Store, Necessities & Temptations and Brown’s Outdoor in Port Angeles, and Brian’s Sporting Goods in Sequim.
Eight-person group tables also are available for $320.
For more information, phone Eric Flodstrom at 360-452-2327, ext. 304.
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Outdoors columnist Michael Carman appears here Thursdays and Fridays. He can be reached at 360-452-2345, ext. 5152 or at mcarman@peninsuladailynews.com.
