Heavy rains and high winds are expected to visit the North Olympic Peninsula for Thanksgiving week, with the Elwha River under a flood watch.
Meanwhile, gusty winds on parts of the North Olympic Peninsula are forecast to subside after noon today.
Peak gusts have ranged from 30 mph at the Jefferson County courthouse to 48 mph at Neah Bay, 51 mph at Quillayute Airport 10 miles west of Forks 52 mph at the Hood Canal Bridge and 46 mph at Race Rocks, B.C., in the Strait of Juan de Fuca about 10 miles north of Freshwater Bay.
[For further discussion of Western Washington’s heavy winds, here’s Port Angeles native Scott Sistek’s report at KOMO-TV, our news partner in Seattle: http://tinyurl.com/82bmc54 ]
The Elwha River was under a flood watch Tuesday in preparation for the 2 to 4 inches of windswept rain that were expected to fall over the Olympic Mountains on Monday night, according to the National Weather Service.
Up to two more inches are expected today in Port Angeles and up to an inch in Port Townsend.
“If the Elwha floods, I would expect it would produce minor flooding, but we feel a flood watch is warranted,” said Doug McDonnal, National Weather Service hydrologist and lead forecaster, on Monday.
The levee that protects the Lower Elwha Klallam reservation at the mouth of the Elwha River was recently widened and was raised up to 4 feet in certain places to an overall height of 8 feet.
But McDonnal said he doesn’t completely know what to expect with the newly uncontained waters of the Elwha River freely flowing over the remains of the Elwha Dam.
The agency’s hydrologic model has always taken into account the Glines Canyon and Elwha dams, which have held back the river for the past century, but which began to be dismantled in September.
Glines Canyon Dam still is holding back water.
“The approach we are taking with the Elwha is to be on the conservative side,” McDonnal said.
“With the removal of the dams there, there are simply a lot of unknowns as far as forecasting how the river will behave,” he added. “We are in somewhat unfamiliar territory.”
The Olympics will get “the brunt of this rain” as the storm front stalls over the North Olympic Peninsula, said Johnny Burg, weather service meteorologist.
According to the agency’s flood-watch bulletin, “this will cause sharp rises in the rivers flowing off of the Olympics on Tuesday into Wednesday.”
A storm warning also was issued for the entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca at Neah Bay, where winds could gust to 65 mph under a wind advisory that began at 7 p.m. Monday and was set to end at noon today, when winds are expected to peak.
High winds are expected to gust to 35 mph in inland parts of Clallam and Jefferson counties — enough to snap branches and cause power outages — but will howl to up to 80 mph at the 1,500-foot level and above in the Olympic Mountains, the agency said.
The wind could cause power outages and fell entire trees, Burg said.
“Anything that is unsecured will blow around, such as lawn furniture,” he said.
The snow level was expected to be about 4,000 feet Monday night and will rise to 4,500 feet today, Burg said.
About 10 inches of snow is expected to accumulate at the snow level, he said.
Emergency management program coordinators in Clallam and Jefferson counties were jointly monitoring weather reports through the state Emergency Management Division, said Jamye Wisecup, Clallam County emergency management program coordinator.
The storm is “typical” for November, Jefferson County Emergency Management Coordinator Bob Hamlin said.
“Forecasts have been pretty capricious lately,” Hamlin added. “Sometimes they pan out. Sometimes they don’t.”
Monday overnight lows were expected to be in the 40s, with temperatures in the 50s expected today.
The winds are expected to abate by Thanksgiving Day, when temperatures are expected to reach a high near 45 degrees and the chance of precipitation will be 60 percent.
Under a flood watch, conditions are favorable for flooding but flooding is not imminent, according to the agency.
Lower Elwha Klallam officials met Monday morning to review the forecast and were keeping a close eye on the tribal hatchery but were confident the levee would do its job, tribal Chairwoman Frances Charles said Monday.
“We are confident with the expansion of the levees that have been implemented,” Charles said, adding the tribe has sandbags in stock from previous weather events. “We are confident if things come to worse, of course, we will do what is necessary for protecting our facilities and our resources.”
The storm is expected to drop 1 to 2 feet of snow in the north Cascades through this evening.
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Senior Staff Writer Paul Gottlieb can be reached at 360-417-3536 or at paul.gottlieb@peninsuladailynews.com.
For further discussion of Western Washington’s heavy winds, here’s Port Angeles native Scott Sistek’s report at KOMO-TV, our news partner in Seattle: http://tinyurl.com/82bmc54
