PORT TOWNSEND — The population of Jefferson County is projected to increase 31 percent from the 2010 census to 2038, according to a report scheduled for discussion and possible adoption by the county commissioners Monday.
They will consider the report at 10 a.m. in commissioners’ chambers at the Jefferson County Courthouse at 1820 Jefferson St.
The report projects countywide growth from 29,872, as reported in the 2010 census, to 38,349 people in 2036 and 39,221 people in 2038.
The population projections will be used to develop plan updates for Port Townsend and Jefferson County.
“This is the first step in our upgrade of the comprehensive plan and is the first step in our determining what our growth will be and what we need to do to prepare,” said David Goldsmith, interim director of the Jefferson County Department of Community Development.
“The city and the county are using this process so we can provide the right amount of infrastructure and facilities that are needed to support new residents,” he added.
Infrastructure includes new housing and sewage treatment.
The report contains two sets of 20-year projections reflecting the city’s planning period for its comprehensive plan update, which is from 2016 to 2036, and the county’s planning period, which is from 2018 to 2038.
The report was prepared by the Joint Growth Management Steering Committee, which included representatives of the city of Port Townsend, Jefferson County, the Port of Port Townsend, the Jefferson County Public Utility District and local school systems.
Allocation of growth
Countywide planning in accordance with the state Growth Management Act allocates 70 percent of total countywide population growth to urban areas, as follows:
■ 36 percent in Port Townsend.
■ 19.4 percent in the Port Hadlock/Irondale urban growth area.
■ 10.1 percent in the Port Ludlow master planned resort.
■ 4.5 percent in the Brinnon master planned resort.
The Office of Financial Management provided three possible population projections for 2038: low, 27,426; medium, 39,221; and high, 51,201.
The low projection is less than that of the present population, staff pointed out in a memo to commissioners, while the high projection “shows a growth pattern that is much greater than the growth for the past 15 years.”
So the staff recommends the mid-range projection.
Goldsmith said that is based on expectations of regional growth.
“There is a high turnover as people are always coming and going,” he said.
“But we have a pretty low employment base, and as long as there are few family-wage jobs, there won’t be much growth.”
If family-wage jobs are created, they will first benefit those who already live in the county, Goldsmith said.
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Jefferson County Editor Charlie Bermant can be reached at 360-385-2335 or cbermant@peninsuladailynews.com.
