This year is supposed to see the start of a slow, steady recovery for the lumber industry, but managers of North Olympic Peninsula mills say a full recovery is hard to spot on the horizon.
“We’re hoping for the best, but we are also realistic,” said Jim Woodward, manager of Interfor Pacific’s planer mill in Forks.
Demand for lumber in the United States is expected to increase this year by 6.1 percent to 32.9 billion board feet after reaching “modern lows” of about 31 billion board feet last year, according to the Western Wood Products Association.
The lumber trade association anticipates demand will reach 36.1 billion board feet in 2011 as new home construction recovers.
The projection is good news for Woodward and the managers of the Port Angeles Hardwood and Peninsula Plywood mills, but they don’t foresee demand returning to its pre-recession level anytime soon.
“It’s too early to tell,” said Keith Harris, Port Angeles Hardwood mill superintendent.
“If I could do that, I might have a different job.”
The mill opened about five years ago, just before the market dropped. But Harris said it has been able to maintain two shifts.
Harris said the mill hasn’t been immune from the depressed market, but he declined to provide an estimate as to how production at the mill has been affected.
“Could we be doing a little better? Harris asked. “That’s for sure. But we’re hanging in there.”
Woodward said production at the planer mill and Interfor’s saw mill in Beaver is down about 60 percent from full production. Both dropped from two shifts to one about two years ago, he said.
Woodward said the mills have seen some improvement over last year, but overall it’s “status quo.”
“I think most of us are a little more optimistic about the first quarter of next year,” he said.
The plywood market, like lumber, is also driven by the housing market, said Tim Lewis, PenPly general manager.
But he said the market has done pretty well this year because of the Chilean earthquake in February.
Chile is a major exporter of plywood, Lewis said, and the quake took many mills offline.
“It’s supply driven, not demand, this year,” he said.
But the drop in supply is already softening, Lewis said, so the boost for the mill isn’t expected to last much longer.
That keeps his focus on the domestic housing market, and he doesn’t expect to see any dramatic improvement in that area until 2012.
The plywood mill reopened under new management in March after being idle for about two years. It employs about 135 people.
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Reporter Tom Callis can be reached at 360-417-3532 or at tom.callis@peninsuladailynews.com.
