A Christmas hangover in the retail sector, combined with an ongoing recession, drove unemployment into double digits in Clallam and Jefferson counties last month.
Get used to it, regional economists say.
“It’s going to be a one-job-at-a-time recovery, especially in places like Jefferson and Clallam County,” said Jim Vleming, regional economist for the state Employment Security Department, which released January’s preliminary jobless figures Tuesday.
“A lot of people are hanging onto their wallets right now.”
Clallam County’s January unemployment rate of 11.4 percent was the highest reported since February 1994, when it crested at 12.3 percent.
Jefferson County’s unemployment rate was 10.6 percent in January.
The state unemployment rate was an estimated 9.3 percent.
Vleming and others predict a slight rebound this spring when the construction industry begins to hire more workers.
Recession hangs on
But the general trend of high unemployment isn’t expected to change — especially in small business-driven rural areas like the North Olympic Peninsula.
“Honestly, ’09 was the recession, and I think rural counties can expect to feel the effects of the recession for two years for sure, and probably four years down the road,” said Linda Rotmark, Clallam County Economic Development Council executive director.
Budget cuts proposed in the state Legislature will have “a tremendous ripple effect” on unemployment for years to come, Rotmark predicted.
“I think we are just beginning to feel the ripple effect that we’ll really be aware of after the legislative session,” she said.
An estimated 3,480 Clallam County residents were out of work in January out of a total work force of 30,600. That compares with 3,000 out of work in December.
Clallam County’s January jobless rate of 11.4 percent was up 1.5 percent from December’s revised jobless rate of 9.9.
‘Pretty high’
“That’s pretty high,” Rotmark said. “That bothered me.”
Said Vleming: “It’s kind of a rocky situation in Clallam County.”
Clallam County lost 200 non-farm jobs in January and 90 over the past year, Vleming said.
Service-providing industries shed 410 jobs in the county, with retail trade accounting for the bulk of those.
The natural resources, mining and construction sector lost 70 jobs in Clallam County last month, and wholesale trade and government each shed 20 jobs.
Manufacturing jobs in Clallam County grew by 300 positions in January.
“Construction work out at the new Walmart is probably helping out a little bit,” Rotmark said, referring to the “super center” being built now on U.S. Highway 101, east of Port Angeles.
Growth in manufacturing will likely continue, as Peninsula Plywood started production at its Port Angeles mill on Monday with 124 employees at work.
“That’s definitely a piece of good news,” Vleming said. “It’s rare to have 124 jobs coming online all at once.”
Those new jobs should register when the state Employment Security Department releases February jobless data on March 16.
But manufacturing is just one piece of a larger puzzle.
“With the state budget hanging in the balance, I think we’ll have a tight labor market for a while,” Vleming said.
Jefferson County
In Jefferson County, an estimated 1,390 county residents were out of work in January out of a total work force of 13,120. That compares with 1,160 out of work in December.
Jefferson County’s January jobless rate of 10.6 percent was up 1.7 percent from a revised December jobless rate of 8.9 percent.
“Ten-point-six is a real shock,” Vleming said.
Jefferson County lost 170 jobs from its non-farm work pool last month and 150 for the year. Of those 170 job losses for January, 130 were found in the service-providing sector.
Construction and manufacturing each lost 20 jobs in Jefferson County.
Things weren’t much different a year ago. Unemployment was high in both counties in January 2009 — Clallam County’s was 10 percent and Jefferson County’s was 9.1 percent.
“I think the situation has kind of caught up with itself,” Vleming said.
“Now we’re comparing bad to worse.
“It’s going to take us a while to get to where we were at in 2006 and 2007.”
Looking ahead, Vleming and Rotmark agreed that employment will probably rebound a little this spring.
The economy tends “shake out a few cobwebs” as more construction jobs become available with longer days and sunny weather, Vleming said.
“People get a little more optimistic when the weather warms up,” he said.
“It puts a spring in the step as far as construction work goes.”
National economists are predicting a rebound in the second half of this year, Vleming said.
Statewide jobs
Statewide, an estimated 12,400 jobs were added in January, the first monthly gain in employment since November 2008.
“This is a positive sign for Washington state,” Gov. Chris Gregoire said Tuesday in an Employment Security Department news release.
“We have implemented several strategies to create jobs, and it’s paying off.”
Even with the added jobs, the state unemployment rate increased slightly from December’s revised rate of 9.2 percent.
“The month-over-month news is pretty encouraging for a change,” said David Wallace, the state’s chief economist, in a conference call with reporters on Tuesday.
About 360,000 people were still looking for work in Washington in January, and more than 305,000 people received unemployment benefits.
________
Reporter Rob Ollikainen can be reached at 360-417-3537 or at rob.ollikainen@peninsuladailynews.com.
