PORT ANGELES — Clallam County has lost its crowning achievement — accurate prediction of the nation’s presidential winner.
Last fall, the county garnered national attention as the nation’s oldest bellwether county. But when the dust from the 2024 election settled, the results showed Clallam County voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, while the national results were in favor of former President Donald Trump, a Republican.
Clallam County had been a bellwether county — one that consistently predicted the winning presidential candidate — since 1980. But in 2024, residents voted for Harris over Trump by a margin of 52 percent to 44 percent.
This countywide result seems to follow a trend of precincts voting consistently more blue with each presidential election.
When the county’s 67 precincts were examined over the last three presidential elections, four voting trends emerged.
Twenty-six precincts voted for the Democratic party nominees (Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Harris, respectively) in all three elections. Twenty precincts voted for Trump, the consistent Republican party nominee, all three elections.
Some precincts flip-flopped between parties, but only by turning from the Republican candidate to the Democratic candidate.
Fourteen precincts voted Trump-Biden- Harris while seven precincts voted Trump- Trump-Harris.
There was not a single precinct that voted for a Democratic candidate in 2016 or 2020 and then switched to voting for Trump in the most recent Presidential election.
“That pleases me to think we have not had a Democratic [precinct] change from voting to Trump,” County Democratic party chair Ellen Menshew said.
While the West End historically votes Republican, county Republican party chair Matt Roberson said the east end has been slowly drifting toward the blue side of the aisle over the last three presidential elections.
That might not be evidence of rejection of the Republican party as a whole, but rather of Trump as the candidate. While knocking on doors in the county, Roberson said a lot of former Republican voters “said no thank you to Trump’s vision of that.”
“I think it’s part of a larger narrative of the realignment of political parties,” he said. “The pitch he’s [Trump] provided is persuasive to some, but not as persuasive to Clallam County.”
Overall, 47 of the county’s 67 precincts voted for Harris in the most recent presidential election, although not often by wide margins.
Menshew said her guess for these trends is based on the outcomes under the first Trump administration.
“Trump has his past record. That speaks for itself,” she said.
“I would say, too, that Democrats deliver,” she added, mentioning political wins such as the Elwha Bridge replacement project, the $35 million federal Recompete grant and the $15 million secured for the Fiero Marine Life Center.
“The more that we can really bring forward the work that the Democrats are doing and how it impacts our county, particularly, that is certainly going to help improve our voter results,” she said.
Roberson had a straightforward idea of why the county went blue in the last presidential election.
“More county voters liked what Vice President Harris was offering than former President Trump,” he said.
In terms of voter turnout, Clallam County’s 84 percent was higher than the national average of about 64 percent.
However, just like the rest of the country, Clallam County saw a dip in voter turnout when compared to the 2020 turnout of about 86 percent.
Whether the county will continue trending blue remains to be seen.
“I couldn’t even venture a guess on that,” Menshew said. “There’s far too many variables.”
The biggest factor for the next presidential race, in her opinion, is which individuals are selected as the Democratic and Republican Party nominees.
Roberson said if the Republican party focuses on state and local issues, rather than what is going on in Washington, D.C., it will have a better chance of performing well among the different precincts.
The future nominees also will play a role.
“I think there’s always going to be some hesitancy in east county whenever Trump is on the ballot,” Roberson said. But, in the next election, “he won’t be.”
Whatever political direction Clallam County moves toward in the future, its failure as a bellwether has lost its spotlight in the national news — at least for this issue.
When the next presidential election rolls around, regional, national and international journalists will likely flock somewhere, interviewing residents and coming up with theories about which candidate will win the highest elected office in the country. A particularly promising county will probably make national headlines as the “oldest bellwether in the nation.”
It just won’t be Clallam.
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Reporter Emma Maple can be reached by email at emma.maple@peninsuladailynews.com.
