PORT ANGELES — It’s not often that Clallam County is in the national news.
This fall, however, journalists have flocked to the county in droves, walking the streets of Sequim, Port Angeles and Forks to talk to locals about Clallam County’s status as the nation’s oldest bellwether.
A “bellwether” county in a presidential election is one that consistently predicts the winning presidential candidate. In a nation of 3,113 counties, Clallam is the only one that has predicted the winning candidate in the last 11 presidential elections, and people across the nation are watching to see which way it will swing in this year’s neck-and-neck presidential race.
Longtime county residents have their own ideas about why this county is the “last bellwether standing,” as Northwest Public Broadcasting put it.
One possible reason is the county’s diversity — if not demographically, at least ideologically.
“We’ve got a lot of diverse attitudes,” said John McNutt, treasurer for the North Olympic History Center Board of Directors.
Scooter Chapman, retired radio announcer for KONP-AM, said the ideological diversity could be a result of the county’s older population.
“[Older people] usually vote the person rather than the party,” he said.
The median age of Clallam County residents is 52, compared with the U.S.’s median age of 39, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That translates to its voter base — 59 percent of the county’s registered voters are older than 55, according to the Washington Secretary of State.
Additionally, older voters grew up during a tumultuous time in history, with the “Berkeley riots and other stuff like that,” McNutt said.
That background results in a “combination of people in the county here that like things the way they were, and another large group of people that wanted to question everything,” he added.
Other than the political climate in which many of the residents grew up, Judy Reandeau Stipe, executive director of Sequim Museum & Arts, said the ideological diversity may come from the dichotomy of opinions held by generational residents versus new residents.
“We’ve got a really good balance of people that have lived here for a long time, and folks that have come here more recently,” said Bryon Monohon, director of the Forks Timber Museum.
“[There are] people moving here from all over the world,” said David Brownell, executive director for the North Olympic History Center. “Different people, arriving with different perspectives and different politics.”
Tied into the notion of ideological diversity, local volunteer Stephen Rosales said Clallam County has a lot of independent or moderate voters, rather than staunch supporters of a specific political party.
“There are many independents and moderates who live here,” said Michael McAleer, RE/MAX broker. “Most people have relationships across party lines, which forces what I see as healthy and productive discourse.”
“There is a practical-ness to people living in Clallam County that is reflected regardless of party,” Forks City Planner Rod Fleck said.
The number of people willing to cross party lines is reflected in Clallam’s status as a “purple” county, or one where both major political parties have similar levels of support.
Presidential candidates win in Clallam County by very slim margins. In 2012, the county voted for Barack Obama by just 0.38 percentage points. In 2016, it voted for Donald Trump by 2.83 percentage points. In 2020, it voted for Joe Biden by 3.37 percentage points.
“It’s a true purple county,” said Bruce Skinner, executive director of the Olympic Medical Center Foundation.
Clallam isn’t the only purple county in the U.S. However, those types of counties appear to be disappearing. In the 2020 election, a little less than 10 percent of the nation’s counties or county equivalents were decided by single-digit margins, compared to more than 35 percent in 1992, according to FiveThirtyEight.
But political purple seems to live on in Clallam County.
“I don’t hear anybody come out and say I’m a real Democrat, Republican or Independent,” Chapman said. “They just do their own thing.”
“People out here tend to vote more with their values than maybe in alignment with a specific political party,” Brownell said.
The final reason Clallam County has been a bellwether for so long might just be “straight up dumb luck,” McNutt said.
“You can make the case that it is just luck and doesn’t mean anything,” Monohon said.
The term bellwether originated in the world of shepherding, according to NPR. When a shepherd had to leave their flock, they would tie a bell around the neck of a lead wether (a castrated male sheep), who would steer the flock. When the shepherd returned, they used the sound of the bell as a locating tool.
Historically, shepherds had to be certain that their bellwethers would be fit for the task, otherwise the safety of their flock would be at stake.
In modern times, the word bellwether does not carry the same certainty — no one knows if Clallam County will retain its title.
“I don’t know,” Fleck said. “This election seems really, really close.”
“We’ll know the day the ballots are counted,” said Edna Petersen, Clallam Economic Development Council board member.
Some people are hoping the streak won’t continue.
“A certain part of me certainly wants [the county to retain its title],” McNutt said. “But there’s another part of me that would just as soon see the focus go somewhere else.”
Some political data experts are predicting that Clallam will go blue this election season, according to a Seattle Times columnist.
On the other hand, a poll done in 25 of the nation’s swing counties, including Clallam County, found Trump ahead by a slim 1 percent, according to The Telegraph.
Which candidate Clallam County will vote for, and whether its results align with the rest of the nation, remains to be seen.
“I guess we’ll find out,” Skinner said.
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Reporter Emma Maple can be reached by email at emma.maple@peninsuladailynews.com.
